Day Fourteen of Orca in Switzerland – Simulating An Epidemic

Day Fourteen of Orca in Switzerland – Simulating An Epidemic

This morning I watched the and it’s interesting. The person is not an expert. He played with various models to show how epidemics spread over a period of time when variables such as infectiousness, social distancing, quarantining and other variables are implemented.


If one hundred percent of people self-isolate then the duration of an epidemic is cut short from lack of people to infect. This is what every nation should have done. With such measures the duration of an epidemic or pandemic is short and thus the economy takes a much smaller hit.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxAaO2rsdIs


I chose both to watch and share this video because it’s factual, it’s experimental and it provides us with examples of how actions have positive or negative effects. Despite it being theoretical it provides the right messages.



When I saw the video titled “How to tell if we’re beating COVID-19” I did not follow the link despite having it suggested on YouTube and Twitter. When I read the title my immediate reaction is that at the moment we’re not. To beat it we should have gone into isolation as soon as there was a risk of a pandemic, not after it has infiltrated numerous communities and spread.



I look at the graphs on Corona-data.ch every day. During the first few days of ORCA I was hoping that Switzerland’s graph would decline downwards within a week of people going into self-isolation but that didn’t happen.


From the moment people were told to self-isolate to the moment they did self-isolate there was a lag. It took almost two weeks for the streets to empty and for motorways to become empty. Two nights I looked towards the motorway and I couldn’t see any cars for thirty or more seconds. The “Red and White Snake” as I like to call motorway traffic at night, vanished.


When you look at the model showing one hundred percent isolation in the video above you see that pandemics can be cut short much sooner. It helps justify the attitude that I’ve had when on my walks, of avoiding to be within two meters of others and to turn around and find an alternate route if I could not avoid coming in close proximity to others.


I have been reading The Aeronauts A few weeks ago Amazon Prime was recommending the film, but after watching the first few seconds I saw that it was based on a book and decided to read the book instead. It explores the use of Hot Air balloons to study weather and the atmosphere, before planes and other forms of transport. It also explores the early days of scientific expeditions that attempted to get to the top of the Mont Blanc to study atmospherics.

Day Eleven of Orca in Switzerland – Clothes Have Been Barricaded Away

Day Eleven of Orca in Switzerland – Clothes Have Been Barricaded Away

Today’s joke is that clothes have been barricaded away as you can see in the featured photo. I find the idea of hiding clothing behind a wall of beers amusing. How often would you see this. I hope that your underwear and socks are new because if they’re not you may spend weeks or even months feeling uncomfortable.


The queues to get into the shops are not bad and I did see at least two couples walking together in shops so the rules are not as strict as people thought. Shops are quiet.


We keep hearing the refrain – People should stay home, but people are at home


We keep hearing the refrain that people should stay home but if you walk around villages and other places you see that people are staying home. Parkings are closed. Traffic is practically nonexistent and even pedestrians are rare. You might see one or two people here and there but not more, especially when you walk around lunchtime.


I get the impression that people who are still working feel martyred because they’d like to be off like many others but in my experience you’re better off working than being off. If you’re off then you’re at home with the challenge of finding things to keep you positive.


At work you still have specific tasks to do, you still meet people, and for you life is relatively normal. I see that shop keepers seem normal. They don’t behave as if they’re traumatised. You see them talking together. life has remained normal. I would guess that working in airports at the moment is quiet, with so few flights. If all the planes are parked then you’re an Acte De prèsence. You just need to find how to make time go faster, to get to the end of the current shift.


I didn’t reach ten thousand steps today. I didn’t bother to go for a walk this afternoon. Walks aren’t fun when you need to avoid people who are indifferent. In the shops you have no choice, but outdoors it’s easy for people to avoid you and they should.


As a case in point I could have walked on a side road but because I saw a woman whom I assumed would walk too close to me I took a gravel path. Right after passing her, from several meters away, I heard a severe cough and I’m happy I observed the safety distance. It might have been an ordinary cold. My point is that we should keep our distances at all times.


Another incident involved someone stinking of body odour in the shops. During a pandemic the last thing you want is dirty unwashed people walking around shops. The cleaner you are, the fewer places the virus has to rest and relax whilst waiting for its next connection.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UzJclM_KmRg
What I thought of after writing the last sentence.


Now that I’ve lost your attention I can have dinner.

Day ten of Orca in Switzerland – The New Normal

Day ten of Orca in Switzerland – The New Normal

Today I’m getting to grips with the new normal. The new normal is queuing like people did before self-checkout and other technology. We also need to queue to get into shops and you either need to take a trolley or a shopping bag if you want to buy things. No more baskets as they are harder to disinfect and keep clean.


“Pardon me, miss, but you can’t use these trolleys, you need to use those trolleys. This is the column of trolleys that still need to be disinfected.” That’s the scene I saw when I went to the shops around lunchtime. That’s a mistake you only make once during a pandemic.


Normally I go to one shopping centre that I need to get to by scooter rather than by foot, to avoid food being out of the fridge for more than 15 minutes. As pandemic measures have been added I am now considering another shop that is smaller and with a smaller maze when getting into the shop for food.


There is a visible change in the streets and on the motorway. You see that traffic density is decreasing and that the number of people walking are lower. People are settling into a new routine, a new way of life, a new culture. Pandemics do force society to adapt to new cultural norms.



As you see from the Swiss weather app the level of air pollution has gone down as people go from a routine that required a car for almost everything to a routine that no longer requires the car. There is no need to commute to socialise and there is no need to commute for work. Train services have been reduced two or three times as demand declined, and then declined again.


We are going back to a “village” life. We are walking locally and people are discovering the routes that I have walked for two or three years by now. If Google or Strava show a heatmap of walking patterns I am sure that we would see that people are living within a six to ten kilometre radius of home, where leaving the house for walks in the sun is still allowed.


France, England and Spain are forcing people to stay home now, so life in those countries is going to shift in the next three or four days. There is a lag from the moment the restrictions are put in place and the moment when people have no opportunity to flout the rules.


Traffic did not decline in a single day. It took a few days. The motorbike groups that we saw during the first week have stopped and so have the columns of cars. Petrol stations now seem to be quiet. People are driving less, so refueling is less frequent.


I have walked 276km of the 298.8 kilometre walking challenge for this month and I’m tired. I’m happy that the goal is now just 3.1km a day. I can reach it by walking to the food shop, shopping and walking back. when the challenge is finished I will probably revert to using the indoor trainer.


At the start of quarantine, I thought that I would cycle a lot but advisories came out saying that people should avoid activities where they could be injured and I injured myself cycling last spring, so I’d rather avoid the same injury when there is a good chance that the wait in a hospital may be time-consuming.


I was wrong to think that this would be over quickly, and now that I see we are in it for a while I will adapt my goals accordingly. Things I thought I could get away with not doing will now be done. This includes looking for work again more than anything else. My other daily goals are going well. Writing a blog post is consistent, studying German is on day 197. My daily walk is still going and finally listening to podcasts in German is still going.


Quarantine is about developing habits and keeping to them, and then adding new goals as you go, so that despite life being strange (link to the game by that name unintentional) we continue moving forward. Who knows, we might even start to thrive.

Day Five of Orca in Switzerland – Next Time We Discuss Shaking Hands We Should Stop and Go Into Self-Isolation.

Day Five of Orca in Switzerland – Next Time We Discuss Shaking Hands We Should Stop and Go Into Self-Isolation.

It’s Day Five of ORCA in Switzerland. Next time we discuss shaking hands we should stop, and go into self-isolation. We had all the signs that a pandemic was coming. We knew about China and we saw what was going on in Italy. We knew that a virus was infecting people at a rapid rate.


When I chose not to go to the Graduate Institute because I knew a Pandemic was coming I was right. It wasn’t worth the risk. If everyone had had the common sense, and forethought to start isolating we wouldn’t have seen such a rapid increase in the spread of the virus.


When I saw people discussing whether to shake hands I thought it was alarmist and stupid and to some degree, I wasn’t wrong. I was wrong to think we should shake hands but I was right to start avoiding large groups. The trick, to avoid pandemics is to follow international news, and see what is happening in other countries, and to see what actions they are taking. we should then take the same actions pre-emptively.


If everyone outside of Italy had taken those actions sooner the virus would have struggled to spread and society might have fewer affected people.


The lesson we should have learned is that when we see a pandemic is coming we should discuss whether to go into self-isolation, rather than whether to shake hands.

Outdoor Sports and Pandemics

In theory, pandemics are terrible for your social life because you go from socialising in bars, pubs, restaurants, cinemas, theatres, and cafés to having to stay home like an indoor cat or a fish in an aquarium.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FrHkKXFRbCI


For people like me, the thought of not being in crowds of 50 people is not worrying in the least. I love summer sports where we’re never more than 20 or so people anyway. The biggest hit to my social life comes in Autumn and winter when we shift from outdoor sports like cycling, climbing via Ferrata and others to indoor sports like drinking in a crowd and other less vibrant activities.


Events are being canceled left and right. The Geneva traffic jam show (Salon de L’auto, officially) is canceled. Polymanga has been shifted to August, the Giro D’italia is suspended, and more. Schools are out. Office workers are finally allowed to work from home. Pollution levels in China and Italy are going down.


À cela s’ajoute la fermeture des lieux de divertissements (cinémas, théâtres, musées, centres de jeunesse, centres sportifs, centres de fitness, piscines, centres de bien-être, discothèques, pianos-bars, boîtes de nuit, clubs érotiques).

Source


The debate people were having about whether indoor climbing was safe or not is now moot in Switzerland. The answer is “nowhere is open”. It’s going to be an interesting month. I should go out and gather footage with the 360 camera. This is a historic moment. It’s worth documenting.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fqw-9yMV0sI


SARS was a memorable event and COVID19 will be more memorable. I think it’s the first time I’ve lived through a serious pandemic.


Cycling, hiking and other less sociable sports are still possible. In theory, so is swimming in the lake. We can enjoy these sports.