Passing

Today I learned of the passing of a friend, due to complications after struggling to beat cancer. I was made ready for the news today by a post that he was very sick yesterday. I didn’t know the details at the time. It was one of the first posts I saw on Facebook this morning.

I would go to one of the local pubs and talk with the friend. We were studying on the same course and he worked at the bar so the pub became my living room. As I spent time at the bar I got to know the regulars, but I also got to know the town. I felt that I did know quite a few people well. If life had been different I would have stayed in Weymouth for the summer after the course and spent the summer diving.

Aside from having a pub to visit daily, and a place to read all the newspapers, (pre-smartphone days) he also spoke about martial arts films so I borrowed and watched plenty of Chinese and Hong Kong martial Arts films. It’s becaue I watched such a multitude of Martial arts films that I found Kill Bill such a mediocre film. The editing is too tight and is used to disguise that they are not martial artists.

Busy Shops For The First Time

Today I went to the shops at lunchtime hoping that they would be quiet but I found that the queue was so long that I aborted. When I went to see another shop I found that it too was busy. The queue went for a distance out of the shopping centre. In such a situation I see no logical reason to go to the shops. I’d rather avoid being in the same space as a crowd.

After over a year of thinking about it I finally went to the village shop but the selection was mediocre. It may be as useful as a petrol station shop, rather than a proper alternative to bigger shopping centres.

Public Holidays During a Pandemic

I question the rationale of having public holidays during a pandemic. People can’t do anything, can’t go anywhere and shouldn’t meet up In light of all these limitations I also question the wiseness of having people shopping en masse, to get food for a long weekend, when it runs the risk of spreading the virus.

I went to the shops to get a chocolate rabbit, but a chocolate rabbit is not worth falling sick for.

Surprised by the British

Recently I read Ravenrock, an interesting book looking at how the US had prepared to get the president and essential safe safely into bunkers within minutes in case of nuclear war. They were ready with several contingencies should the need crop up.

With the British PM falling sick, and upon hearing that there is no formal plan for when he’s sick I am surprised. I would expect England to be at least as prepared as the US in terms of succession but apparently this isn’t the case. It’s odd.

Before 17 Mar 2020, we estimate the basic reproduction number R0R0 of COVID-19 at 2.73 (95% confidence interval, CI: 2.42 – 3.12). Transmission decreased with the strengthening of social distancing measures by 78% (95% CI: 66%-90%). This resulted in an effective reproduction number ReRe = 0.59 (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.36 – 0.89). Based on these estimates, we can project the future epidemic trajectory for the coming weeks (Figure).

Social distancing works and Switzerland has been able to quantify it’s effectiveness. Before the 17th of March 2020 the RO number of COVID-19 was 2.73 in Switzerland. After social distancing was enacted the RE number is of 0.59%. It has cut the risk of infection by a factor of five. Put another way before social distancing an infected person could infect up to three people through interacting with them. With social distancing there’s half a chance that a single person will infect another. The report is here.